tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-491174673971804494.post6112665645922964110..comments2024-03-22T01:06:23.845-07:00Comments on Confessions of a College Professor: The Oak Island Mystery Show...and StatisticsDoomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04528555392898760692noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-491174673971804494.post-76188452824278111032014-05-09T11:06:58.148-07:002014-05-09T11:06:58.148-07:00Radioactive decay is presented as a constant in sc...Radioactive decay is presented as a constant in schools, and even wiki (har, I know) still refers to it as a constant.Doomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04528555392898760692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-491174673971804494.post-55177542031179494522014-05-09T10:23:45.295-07:002014-05-09T10:23:45.295-07:00Since when was radioactive decay considered consta...Since when was radioactive decay considered constant? At the atomic level, it is a sort of a stochastic process. All we can say is that, over time, every such atom will undergo the process to the limit of our detection capability; but we cannot predict when that process will occur for any given atom. At the bulk level, the half-time is approximately an intensive property. As the 'bulk' decays, the tail will naturally show more variability, more so if the decay products also undergo radioactive decay that confound the measurement. Add to that issue, in terms of dating, what other processes that could add or remove the radioactive element we are analyzing from the sample, either at random one-time events, Poisson events, or periodic events.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11633967694431454813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-491174673971804494.post-38785661000377947212014-02-04T09:53:39.530-08:002014-02-04T09:53:39.530-08:00It's all pretty debatable, but you do mention ...It's all pretty debatable, but you do mention one point that is taken for granted in the show:<br /><br />The "Flood Tunnels" that are supposedly filling the Money Pit. I've never seen anything that really addresses that these things actually exist with certainty. It's always some animation showing their precise location underground...if these alleged shafts are real, why not just plug them up? Even major sewer lines, with modern engineering, plug up all the time without anyone making a concerted effort. Similarly, all man-made trenchworks require constant maintenance to prevent from plugging up. <br /><br />I'm not saying it's impossible, but these 600 year old shafts are still working perfectly after centuries without even a little maintenance. I can't help but be a little curious as to the specifics of the design.Doomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04528555392898760692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-491174673971804494.post-36231693863215314512014-02-04T09:43:02.456-08:002014-02-04T09:43:02.456-08:00A key evidence as proof to who may have built the ...A key evidence as proof to who may have built the Oak Island Money Pit lies with the use of the Coconut Fiber found within the Main Shaft and Flood Tunnels<br />My theory for “The (Untold) Story of the Oak Island Money Pit” does not support the carbon dating of the Coconut Fiber to be between 1260 and 1400, with 1330 being between those dates<br />This time frame has led to many latter dated theories of Vikings, Knight Templars, and Druids with all of them using the Coconut Fiber during this period for their construction.<br />Investigating into the history of the Coconut Tree shows that although it originated in Malaysia during the latter 1200ad, it did not cross over to Africa, Europe, South and Central America until mid-1550 with the Coconut Fiber not available for use until the latter 1600’s.<br />http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/life/plants-fungi/seeds-of-trade/page.dsml?section=regions&region_ID=8&page=spread&ref=coconut<br />Unless the Vikings portaged their ships to the Atlantic Ocean, the use of Coconut Fiber was not accessible to them<br />It is interesting that the “Free Masons” choice and use of Coconut Fiber was by no means an accident, as it is one of a few materials that are resident to salt water. By bonding it with clay they produced a strong sealant which would last a very long time.<br />http://www.cocoze.com/why-coconut-fibre/<br />I would like to call for a more recent carbon dating to be done on the found Coconut Fibers.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09027107050609635511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-491174673971804494.post-47923564943426897932014-01-15T08:17:45.881-08:002014-01-15T08:17:45.881-08:00Exactly, once the interval is created, probability...Exactly, once the interval is created, probability is no longer involved (i.e., the probability is either 0 or 1).<br /><br />All the % does is indicate the level of confidence, based on what is known. Of course, if the assumption of "what is known" is false, then it all becomes meaningless. This could be a real problem in carbon dating, since there's evidence now that radioactive decay isn't a constant (an assumption made for dating).Doomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04528555392898760692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-491174673971804494.post-5089550455952155642014-01-15T07:57:19.246-08:002014-01-15T07:57:19.246-08:00There are some subtleties at play here. The true a...There are some subtleties at play here. The true age is some number -- and not a random variable. So we can't talk about the probability that it's from between 1200 and 1400 AD. And if we construct a specific 95% confidence interval either the true age is somewhere within the interval -- or it's not. All we can say is that *were* we to construct an arbitrary 95% confidence interval, the chances are 95% that the true age will be somewhere in this interval.AAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13242448989166177843noreply@blogger.com